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    The Market

    After six months of 2020.

    By | The Market

    We have been waging a global war against something we cannot see. In the 1897 novel “War of the Worlds” by H.G. Wells, it is a similar invisible bacteria that eventually stops the Martians from destroying humankind. Read More

    Uncertainty 2020.

    By | The Market

    We have now seen markets recover to almost the levels before the Covid crash. This recovery has taken only two months and the people who bought the market end of March, have made a lot of money. Sasol is up almost 500% from its low in March; City Lodge is up 116%; Growthpoint is up 55%; Satrix Resi is up 78%; and Satrix40 is up 47%. Read More

    Patience is a virtue

    By | The Market

    Equity investors are often told to “buy and hold”, but we have mentioned before that that is not the whole truth and that slow but deliberate adjustments to your investment portfolio are necessary to optimize the return you get and manage the risk you take. Although equities are the best-performing asset class over the longer term (see graph below) and a buy-and-hold strategy will eventually work if you just buy the index, you will notice that there are times when you have to wait for a very long time to go forward. Read More

    Is the glass half full?

    By | The Market

    It is common knowledge that there always are a buyer and a seller in commerce. The price of any commodity is determined by the relationship between what the buyer is prepared to pay as against what the seller is prepared to accept. The value of such an item is in the eye of the beholder and usually very subjective. Read More

    Choosing the winners and the losers

    By | The Market

    One of the most important strategies in investing, is getting the investing cycles right. To see if you are one of the few people who can do this, take the above chart of the year-to-date price and performance figures of the top 41 companies in South Africa and make your prediction on how this picture will look in one year from now, i.e. on 30th August 2020.

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    Argentina and our take on emerging markets

    By | The Market

    In Argentina a surprise election result heightened investor fears that populists could replace Argentina’s current, more business-friendly government, triggering a drop in the value of the peso against the US$ by 49% and the equity market by 43%, erasing all the gains for the year. Read More

    Investment insights from Coronation

    By | The Market

    It must be said that Coronation Fund Managers have been underperforming in their equity funds over the last 5 years owing to a very bad 2015 and 2018. Over a longer time period they are still one of the top performers. If we look at the Coronation Equity fund, they are 14th out of 80 funds over a 7-year period, and 4th out of 59 funds over a 10-year period. For this year up to 30th April, their Equity fund is ranked 4th out of 166 funds. Read More

    It is all so confusing!

    By | The Market

    Walking down an imaginary financial street, you realise how noisy it is these days. You hear people shouting about the brewing USA recession as indicated by the US inverse yield curve. (That is when you get a higher return on a shorter-term US government bond than the longer-term ones, signalling a weaker economy.) You hear people talking about how damaging the trade wars are and that it can be a protracted detractor from world growth. Read More

    Times are good again

    By | The Market

    We are seeing world equity markets rebounding from their precipitous fall towards the end of 2018. Some of our Blue Chips like Naspers (+23%), Bats (+22%), Anglos (+25%) and even Aspen (12% over the last week) are up. That brings the JSE to +10% and the S&P to +15% year to date. Read More