• Category

    Economy

    Revised Budget and living in SA.

    By | Economy

    Wednesday last week Tito Mboweni delivered the revised 2020 Budget and it was not pretty. In the February 2020 Budget, government had forecast a GDP growth rate of 0,9% in 2020, now Treasury expects  GDP growth to be -7,2% in 2020. Read More

    Understanding the rand.

    By | Economy

    Wow, the rand is something to behold. As South African investors we are fascinated by and intimately linked to the volatility of our currency. Just look at the graph below, borrowed from a recent Anchor Capital newsletter: Read More

    Impact of Covid and R500 billion stimulus

    By | Economy

    It was with some sense of relief that we heard the unsustainable hard lockdown would be phased out on a risk-adjusted basis starting on the first of May. The economic impact of this pandemic has been severe and looking at the investment returns year-to-date we see the following: Read More

    The last quarter of 2019

    By | Economy

    We will soon be in the last quarter of 2019, from where we will be looking back at mixed results after we started the year with high expectations for a recovery in our economy and our political situation. Read More

    You are not alone

    By | Economy

    If you have been cutting back on eating out, or driving around, or even going to your supermarket for grocery shopping, you are not the only one. The graph below from economist Mike Schussler shows that people are eating out much less than in the past. Read More

    Interest rate cut

    By | Economy

    The Reserve Bank of South Africa has cut the repo rate with 0,25% to 6,5% starting 19 July 2019. The prime lending rate will drop to 10%. This will bring a little relief to everybody making debt repayments and even be positive for our shares. The negative side is that this drop will put pressure on the rand and, of course, highlight the problem with economic growth in South Africa. Read More

    We have a new cabinet.

    By | Economy, Latest news

    We can all start breathing again after hearing Pravin and Tito will remain in their posts. Most of the Zuma rot has been cut out and the current cabinet members lean more towards an investor-friendly environment and cautious optimism. The rand strengthened after the announcement but unfortunately the strength of the US$ still resulted in the rand trading at a multi-month low. Read More

    A lot of bark but no bite

    By | Economy

    A lot of political commentators believe that, should the outcome of our general election on 8th May not give the ANC a strong majority (57%+), it would give the pro-Zuma faction a very strong hand to prevent Cyril Ramaphosa from ever changing his bark to a bite. Read More

    Budget over, now for the elections

    By | Economy

    On Wednesday last week Minister of Finance Tito Mboweni delivered a very boring budget speech. Eskom was a hot topic and our growing debt to GDP ratio and under-recovery of income tax will have the rating agency Moody’s considering a further downgrade for SA. There is not much else to say and most of the news was thoroughly covered in the press on Thursday last week in any case. Read More