A lot of political commentators believe that, should the outcome of our general election on 8th May not give the ANC a strong majority (57%+), it would give the pro-Zuma faction a very strong hand to prevent Cyril Ramaphosa from ever changing his bark to a bite. The pro-Zuma faction includes at least three of the top six in the ANC: David Mabuza, Ace Magashule and Jesse Duarte. Currently, a lot of people and organizations, including Moody’s, give Cyril the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his talk about acting against corruption, but we have to realise that the ANC government is still brimming with pro-Zuma, pro-corruption, incompetent puppets who may yet make the Zuma years look like a fairy tale.
South Africa is a cat with nine lives. So far, we have escaped disaster more than once. The two outstanding miracles that come to mind are the avoidance of a civil war with the transition of power in 1994; and the more recent ousting of Zuma. South Africa could very easily have been a Libya, Zimbabwe or Syria but we managed to escape those calamities. Unfortunately, we do not see a return to power by the pro-Zuma faction in any way conducive to SA’s survival as a developing nation with a rosy future.
Once again we are holding our breaths as investors. If Cyril Ramaphosa gets a mandate to start biting, we will see the rand strengthen; competent people returning to critical jobs in government and SOEs; business confidence returning; investments flowing in; jobs being created; taxes being paid and used for the country, not for the crooks. And, of course, the sweet revenge of people who thoroughly deserve it, being thrown in jail.